I don't think the Allies would be closer with Germany either. And while you do have to defend against British/American invasions, that also creates a buffer zone to stop invasions of Germany directly. Lack of this industry could be a detriment to Barbarossa. First off, Germany gets (at least in HOI3) vital industry from the conquered territories in Europe. This would be a good idea, and all the points you brought up are valid, but there is some fallout to not going the historical route. Would this be likely to be a viable strategy for HOI4 (knowing what we already know) and has anyone tried it out in previous HOI games. Poland is a strong ally on the Eastern Front, unlike the Italians or the Japanese (as they are generally fighting the Chinese/Americans).This allows more troops for the Eastern Front. If there is a war with the Western Allies, it can be a Phony War (defend the North German coast and the French-German border) that lasts for ages. The Germans won't have to conquer/occupy Norway, Denmark, the Low Countries or France to defend against future British/American invasions.This means a stronger Germany will square off against the Germans. For the Soviets you only need to hurry building your army and to an extent you air force. A focus on the Soviet Union from the start allows Germany more time to expand its navy, which it will need to take on the Western Allies.Poland is no such liability as it only borders the already German Baltic. Southern Europe is also often the soft underbelly of an Axis Europe and an avenue for invasion.
It forces the Axis to spread out their forces over more area, sooner than you might want it. With a non-existent or limited Western Front, Italy would not be necessary as an ally.An Axis Poland would make a war between Germany and the Western Allies less likely, while still allowing war with the Soviet Union.This bit of background brings me to the topic I wanted to discuss: Could Poland be Germany's most useful ally in HOI4? Why do I think that could be the case: A client status could however be preferred if they felt the alternative (total subjugation) was likely, which was a possibility in the late 30s (especially after Czechoslovakia). While the Polish were very anti-communist (they fought an independence war against them in the 20s) they refused the German offer because they feared that they'd become nothing but a German puppet state. Germany demanded (part of) the lands they lost after Versailles, while Poland would be given Soviet territory in Belarus and Ukraine to compensate them. In the 1930s the Germans asked Poland to sign the Anti-Comintern Pact and join it in a front against the Soviet Union. It never was an Italy, Hungary or even a Nationalist Spain in terms of likelihood, but there were possibilities. Historically it wasn't all that far fetched for Poland to join the Axis. While it's not explicitly shown in the screenshot shown as more possible than previous HOI games, Germany's national focuses does hold promise. One avenue that Germany will be able to take is to befriend Poland, instead of naturally becoming the force that conquers it.
The National Focus dev diary showed that alternate historical paths will be more plentiful and better integrated into the flow of gameplay.
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